Count Your Blessings

Let’s talk about risk, which is much in the news these days. What is risk? For many of us, risk is standard deviation, beta, tracking error. For most people, risk is the chance of losing money. There is a debate these days about how much risk we should be allowed to take and what risks we should not be allowed to take. That is at the heart of the financial re-regulation bill before Congress (the opposite of progress). Who can take what risks has been a bedeviling question for regulators since we first started modern finance 50 years ago. Read more

Tax day comes and tax day goes with nary a whimper from the citizenry. This is the way it works in the modern economy. Were it not for the anesthetic of regular withholding the situation might be a lot different. Think how bad things would be if each of us had to put aside sufficient funds to meet our tax liability each year. If you had to set aside 25% of your ready cash for the day, once a year when you had to write that big fat check to the government, then each pay day or each month when you went through the exercise you’d be reminded just how little you get for your money. The resentment would undoubtedly be much higher among the somewhat more than half of Americans who actually pay taxes toward the other half who generally receive more in government largesse than they pay in taxes. The resentment toward the government itself for its profligacy, waste and abuse would likely be higher, too. We’d have more limited government is our guess, but we could be wrong. Maybe a lot of people would gladly put aside 25% of their incomes Read more

It’s About Time

Time is of the essence. Time flies. It’s about time! We fret about time all the time. We mark various anniversaries on a regular basis, the beginning of spring, your birthday, holidays and other special occasions. We have a calendar full of such days. The markets have just marked a couple of anniversaries as well. This past March 10th, it was the 10th anniversary of the peak of the tech bubble. On March 9th, it was the first anniversary of the bull market that started a year ago at the bottom of the last bear market. It is an interesting coincidence that the two days should fall so close together on the calendar. Read more

When was it, a week ago? We were waxing worriedly (enough alliteration) about the resistance right above us for the major market indices. Well, that is all pointless now as we’ve technically broken out above resistance and made marginal new highs. The leader in this effort was the NASDAQ, which actually broke above its January highs a couple of weeks ago and now is clearly in new recovery high territory. All the hoopla about the NAZ being a big loser over the past ten years means nothing to this current run. It is all about “what have you done for me lately?” The NAZ has been the leader in this bull market and looks like it doesn’t want to give up the lead.
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We have to thank Mark Hulbert of the Hulbert Financial Digest for regular reminders about contrarianism. The latest consumer confidence and consumer sentiment data are not a reason to worry about the length or strength of the economic recovery or the market advance. He notes that consumer sentiment is very much a lagging indicator and in times past has bottomed well after the onset of bull markets and economic recoveries. The current low for consumer sentiment was way back in May last year, although we aren’t that far from those levels after this past month’s reading. Typically, consumer sentiment turns several months after the onset of recovery and even further after the onset of bull markets. The recent reports are just a couple more bricks in the wall of worry that this bull market must climb. Read more